GEOMORPHOLOGICAL AND COASTAL DYNAMICS STUDY USING RISK PARAMETERS IN KUTAI LAMA, ANGGANA SUB-DISTRICT, KUTAI KARTANEGARA REGENCY

English

Abstract

The coastal area of Kutai Lama in Anggana Sub-district is a dynamic region facing increasing risks due to active fluvial processes and intense anthropogenic pressures. Specific studies integrating local geomorphological characteristics into spatial disaster risk zonation in this area remain limited. This research aims to identify geomorphological characteristics, analyze the dynamics of riverbank changes, and develop a coastal disaster risk zonation map using weighted parameters. The study employs a quantitative descriptive method integrating Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Eight risk parameters classifed into Hazard, Vulnerability, and Capacity components were identified and weighted. Riverbank dynamics were analyzed using multi temporal Landsat 8 imagery for 2019 and 2024. The results indicate that the consistent AHP analysis (Consistency Ratio = 0.028) is dominated by three key parameters with equal weight: Riverbank Changes (32%), Population Density (21%), and Protective Infrastructure (13%). The final risk zonation map divides the area into five classes. The Medium Risk Zone dominates, covering 51.4% of the total area. However, High and Very High Risk Zones are identified covering a cumulative area of 1.214 km² (8.7%), significantly concentrated along the southern banks of the Meriam River (Bukuan Village), where active erosion intersects with dense settlements. This study provides a scientifically valid risk map to support stakeholders in formulating adaptive disaster mitigation strategies and spatial planning.